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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd