Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.